Features

Below are a selection of features I have written on a freelance basis. The copyright for these pieces is owned by the Lloyd’s 360 Risk project, where they can be viewed in their entirety.

Red, white and green?

Tuesday November 4th 2008 will mark the 56th quadrennial US presidential election. As the Democratic Party candidate Barrack Obama – an Illinois-based junior US senator – and Republican Party nominee John McCain – a senator from Arizona – prepare to go head to head, their green credentials are increasingly coming under the spotlight. While the US’ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has already established an agenda it hopes will help address climate change, many feel its three-step plan of “slowing the growth of emissions”, “strengthening science, technology and institutions” and “enhancing international cooperation” does not go far enough to reduce emissions. With the EPA’s current strategy dating back to 2002, when it released its ten-year plan to reduce emissions by 18 per cent by 2012, the environmental stance of Obama and McCain is of paramount importance to green campaigners and businesses alike.

In 2005 global research resource on international affairs and policy World Public Opinion reported that the “overwhelming majority” of Americans would support the US agreeing to limit its green house gasses at least as much other developed economies (94 per cent) and nearly half (47 per cent) thought their nation should be doing more than most other countries in order to address its carbon emissions.

Understanding the importance of this issue to both the electorate and businesses, Obama has pledged to address the risk climate change poses to trade and the global reputation of the US by investing $150 billion (£75 billion) over the next decade to “catalyse private efforts to build a clean energy future”. He explains that this will help create five million new jobs. Similar initiatives championed by the Democratic nominee include ensuring ten per cent of the US’ electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012 and an economy-wide cap-and-trade programme to reduce emissions by 80 per cent over the next 40 years.

Much like his Republican predecessor, John McCain’s principles for climate policy are motivated by preserving the current economic climate. On his website he issues a precautionary warning that the information operated on should be “scientifically sound”, implying that this has not always been the case. McCain, like Obama, backs a cap-and-trade policy and notes that climate policy must “spur the development and deployment of advanced technology”. In other words, in addressing the risks that climate change poses to the economy, through the increase of natural disasters and unpredictable weather patterns, the economy must not be jeopardised. It was a similar concern that prevented the current US president George Bush from signing the Kyoto treaty on climate change. Mr Bush told a Danish TV station in June 2005: “We’re hooked on oil from the Middle East, which is a national security problem and an economic security problem … Kyoto would have wrecked our economy. I couldn’t in good faith have signed Kyoto.”

Meg Boyle, a US energy policy analyst for global campaigning organisation Greenpeace, disagrees with the US president. “To safeguard the economy, you must safeguard the climate,” she says. Furthermore, Ms Boyle notes that 1,000s of firms have signed Greenpeace’s Businesses for a Safe Climate petition, which calls on Congress to create five million green jobs to conserve 20 per cent of the US’ energy by 2015, freeze climate pollution levels and end the development of new coal plants, which emit global warming products. It is worth noting that Greenpeace’s imploration to create five million new jobs echoes one of Obama’s key objectives.

Fellow US-based Greenpeace environmental campaigner David Kessler asserts that most policy makers taking the problem of climate change seriously will see economic opportunity in cutting carbon emissions. He explains: “Obama seems to be on the right track with his stated commitment to invest in renewable technologies and his stated goal to cut carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.” Mr Kessler says that economists and businesses should not see sustaining the economy and climate change as two separate issues as they are “inexorably connected”. He added: “Look no farther than $4 a gallon gas which is the US is unheard of. As fossil fuel supplies dwindle, costs will only rise, underscoring the need to switch from a carbon dependent economy to a clean and green economy.”

If the US continues to lag behind other developed nations in this area, then international trade may falter. Gareth Elliott of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) explains that while the UK government is proactive in addressing climate change businesses are facing problems trading with other countries, which have dissimilar or a lack of policies. Mr Elliott said: “I think we have to say our government has taken a good stance on climate change. We have the climate change bill – we’re the first country to do that and we expect it to get Royal assent by the end of the year.

“However, it is becoming quite confusing how businesses can or can’t trade with other countries.”

The BCC’s policy advisor for environment added: “So for instance, if you are trading with India there are cheap labour costs but then there are environmental regulations put onto British companies, which makes it less competitive. We are very aware that the British government is wary of that. We can’t go storming ahead of other nations. We need to understand the needs of businesses.”

He concluded that international trade needs definitive action from the governments of leading economies to ensure that their operations are safeguarded in an ethical and sustainable way.

Copyright Lloyds 360 Risk Project

Does Zimbabwe spell trouble for British business?

Supermarket giant Tesco announced at the beginning of this month that it is severing all trade links with Zimbabwe. The conglomerate conceded that although it had been a “difficult decision to take”, to continue sourcing £1 million of produce from the nation on an annual basis would have been tantamount to endorsing Robert Mugabe’s escalating political campaign of abuse. It said: “We cannot continue to support [Zimbabwe] though trade, but are urgently finding ways to support them by other means.”

The British retailer’s decision follows a wave of human rights abuses in Zimbabwe, sparked by an electoral battle between Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF party and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). International observers say that in order to quash the opposition party’s claim of a first-round victory, Zanu-PF has systematically and violently instilled a climate of fear amongst the nation’s electorate.

British prime minister Gordon Brown told the House of Commons on June 18th 2008 that during this campaign there have been 53 confirmed deaths, 2,000 people have been injured and more than 30,000 have been displaced. Furthermore, four million Zimbabweans are now in need of aid, but being denied it by Zanu-PF’s regime while members of the opposition and their families have been targeted by the national police force.

Mr Brown warned: “Businesses and individuals who have any dealings with Zimbabwe must examine their own responsibilities and must not make investments that prop up the regime.”

While some firms and England’s cricketers have taken heed of such advice, others have found their hands tied. One of the world’s largest mining groups Anglo American has been operating in Zimbabwe for sixty years and while it professes to be “deeply concerned” about the nation’s flagrant abuse of democracy it will continue to operate there.

In 2003 the firm launched its Unki platinum project, which is a long-term mining investment. The Zimbabwean government has made it clear to Anglo American that if it were to pull out Zanu-PF would assume control of the operation. Faced with a set of unappealing options the firm puts a relatively positive spin on the situation. “Anglo American has a clear responsibility to protect the wellbeing of its more than 650 employees and contractors,” it said in a statement. The firm is also financially bound by the capital it has already invested in the nation to see the project through to its fruition.

However, Sam Turvey of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) explained that firms can take action to pre-empt such business risks. He noted that firms should thoroughly research the political and economic stability of a nation before forming trade links. Mr Turvey advocated UK Trade and Invest’s Export Marketing Research Scheme (EMRS), which is a subsidised service for UK exporters and is back by the BCC. Ian Shaw, managing director at Ocean Systems, explained: “The EMRS service is especially valuable for companies trading in less popular destinations such as Sierra Leone.”

Mr Turvey added: “Such schemes focus on helping companies try and find good contacts [in countries] whom they can stay in touch with. Any sensible company would employ an officer to research the country they’re looking at.” He continued that in Zimbabwe at the moment there is “clearly a risk”, particularly because Western governments are pushing for trading sanctions to be imposed on the nation.

According to insurance broker Susan Ross from Aon, research is not the only cautionary measure firms should action. Trade credit insurance is a form of cover that every firm should invest in the moment they start selling to another nation, Ms Ross said. Furthermore, this advice did not just pertain to those investing in Zimbabwe and other politically volatile nations.

“If you sell to northern Europe, [trade credit insurance] would be for insolvency and non-payment. If you’re selling further afield you would also want to buy cover for the risk of political or macro-economic events happening,” Ms Ross explained.

Furthermore, trade credit insurance brokers will usually help firms assess the risk of trade, as those providing cover for a portfolio of countries will have already compiled a file on those nations. However, Ms Ross stressed that insurance is based on fortuitous risk. Zimbabwe’s pitfalls have become so painfully obvious that to try and insure against a loss in the country would border on being a fraudulent action.

She concluded: “For Zimbabwe, there isn’t an insurance now that can help.”

Copyright Lloyds 360 Risk Project


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